Making a difference-the art of prophesying the future

I find it almost too pathetic to watch what I perceive to be the dying leadership hopes of would-be PM Peter Costello. He is obviously ratchetting up a campaign to distinguish himself from Howard and it seems rather pointless. (see here for example for a pointless story about what you should wear to a race riot). He lacks a certain energy and commitment to non-economic issues which leads us to the supicion that he is indeed a good treasurer, but will not be a good PM
My prediction will be that in 2006, and if not next year then early 2007, Howard will indeed step aside. But the transition of leadership will not be as has always been assumed, one cannot imagine the Abbott's or the Nelson's letting what may be their only opportunity go by. Nor will Mr Turnbull, who seems philosophically quite different from Treasurer Costello and the current Ccabinet, quietly acquiesce.
That is my prediction any way.
Made far enough in advance to allow me to forget it if it doesn't happen, and yet publicly enough to remind you all if it does. AAAh the art of politics.