The problem(s) for Howard

Now that APEC is over the real problem for wee Johnny begins. So let me divulge the answer before I properly state the question so that those of you who have to go work can do so.

My prediction is that Howard will go before the election.

My prediction is that he will call the election this week.

The first problem our beloved leader faces is that if APEC was to be seen to be the bolster he needed to swing the electorate then it didn't work. While it is being hailed as a success, the trouble is that the sort of 'success' that it represents is not the success that the voter understands or is emotionally  concerned about.

There is nothing for us that makes the world a safer place.

There is nothing that will improve immediately the quality of of the environment.

There is the perception that the rich got what they wanted, and that we collude with that because we want to be rich.

Now, I am not convinced that these perceptions are accurate, but perceptions don't have to be.

And that is the second problem for Mr Howard.

The wall cast around APEC is perceived by the electorate to be what Howard's style of government is like. 

We are to be kept out of it, told what is good for us and shut up and accept it.

And the electorate doesn't like that!

Bo, we don't like that at all.

The third problem, and perhaps the most serious one for him. Now the question has been asked he is gone. And someone has dared to suggest that he should resign.

The wall around the Coalition has been breached. And  he has said that he is leader at the will of his party. That is (and I'll do the voice) "I will remain as leader as long as my party wants me".

Yesterday he said "I intend to lead my party to the next election"...now those two statements don't necessarily marry. If it is not  the will of the party, then on his own terms he has to go.

I'm not saying he'll go without a fight.

I'm not saying he won't try to persuade the party that he is the best man for the job.

I'm not saying he doesn't really think Costello will pull it off.

....any way I told you my conclusion at the beginning!

Let's get a life

My feeling is that Chaser is a very dangerous political phenomenon ....for politicians that is... you can't live with them and you can't live without them.
Apart form the obvious 'moral' of the tale...how could they breach two security points in the biggest lockdown in our history?...it crystallises for me something about being Australian that I have been trying to put my finger on.
See a hole...and you must try and go through it!
See a restriction... and you must try and get round it
In the process of this, see an hypocrisy...and you must try and expose it.
Forget all the moralising about an ill-defined 'mateship' and a 'fair go', it is about the bravery to be reckless and throwing caution to the wind ...which so often produces startling results.
Apart from the danger that the Chasettes, no doubt, exposed themselves to (what if a trigger happy sniper had been spooked and let fire? .....I wonder if the good people of Sydney were aware that unless they were on their very best behaviour they were in danger of being shot by snipers...)
Any way 9/10 for Downer for laughing it off, 1/10 for Rudd for being po-faced and serious.
20/10 for Licciardello, Morrow, Reucastel et al.
As I say, I suspect the electorate will side with the prank rather than the security debacle.